CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-06-23T00:39:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-06-23T00:39ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25683/-1
CME Note: Large mostly faint CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and after a data gap in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. The source is an M4.8 class flare from AR13341 (S15E40) with southward deflection from the source. The flare is associated with brightening from a region to the south of the active region seen best in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2023-06-22T23:40Z with dimming around the same time seen in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211. Additionally, there is an EUV wave and moving/opening field lines visible to the SE in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-27T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): 605 Longitude (deg): 26E Latitude (deg): 36S Half-angular width (deg): 28 Notes: Moderate confidence in arrival. Space weather advisor: CLLead Time: 41.67 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-06-25T06:20Z
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